Skill or pure luck?

Tony995890 · Jun 2, 2026

I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

Huntre · Jun 2, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

If you consistently place in the top, it describes some skill.

NSX_Amfe2nat · Jun 2, 2026

How many tournaments do u play in month? I play more than 400 in my baddest mothes and ofcaurse luck is important. But with big amount of tournaments u will see how game changes. Sometimes luck will be with u, sometimes with ur opponents but on big distance u will see how skill much more important than luck

aajfilho · Jun 2, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

It requires patience too.

Tony995890 · Jun 2, 2026

NSX_Amfe2nat said:
你一個月參加多少場比賽？我狀態最好的時候一個月也要參加400多場，當然運氣很重要。但是參加的比賽越多，你就會發現比賽的規則有了什麼樣的變化。有時候運氣會站在你這邊，有時候會站在對手那邊，但從長遠來看，你會發現技術遠比運氣重要得多。

Is 400 real?

monkeytilter · Jun 2, 2026

It's lucky bingooooo.

Stay Lucky ☘️☘️☘️

dompoker · Jun 2, 2026

Luck influences, but you always have to be smart, and skilled.

Poker Orifice · Jun 2, 2026

Tony995890 said:
Is 400 real?

Many online Tournament (MTT) players will play 50+ games per day.

Pabloro10321 · Jun 2, 2026

I stopped playing WPT, but it's very easy to win. Observe your opponents, take notes on them, and you'll see that certain people always make the same mistake. Out of every 10 times, you'll win 2, but the rest of the time you'll double or triple your score due to poorly executed bluffs.

Chebchoub · Jun 2, 2026

Hi

welcome to the Cardschat forum.
In addition to spiritual luck, I believe that luck itself is a small part of the game compared to the skills, strategies, and intelligence of the player himself.
I believe that in most cases, luck is the result of respecting the application of bankroll rules, mastering poker skills and strategies, and also choosing the game, and the appropriate timing and place.
Professional players believe that they are capable and can catch luck as well.

Flyer35 · Jun 2, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

Huntre said:
If you consistently place in the top, it describes some skill.

NSX_Amfe2nat said:
How many tournaments do u play in month? I play more than 400 in my baddest mothes and ofcaurse luck is important.

There's no doubt luck plays a large role. If you play 400 low buy-in/freeroll tournaments a month you're bound to place in some. How many flips do we see every tournament? A LOT! Flips are by definition pure luck. How many low percentage shoves do we see that actually win? A LOT! Those are by definition desperation (we won't call them stupid) plays. We make ourselves feel good by referring to "fold equity", but be honest - people rarely fold in freerolls or most low buy-in tournaments. They just blindly call with pretty much any hand.

Is skill also involved? Absolutely. But honestly, I'll take luck over the hands that I might honestly win by playing skillfully any day.

Chebchoub · Jun 3, 2026

NSX_Amfe2nat said:
How many tournaments do u play in month? I play more than 400 in my baddest mothes and ofcaurse luck is important. But with big amount of tournaments u will see how game changes. Sometimes luck will be with u, sometimes with ur opponents but on big distance u will see how skill much more important than luck

I think it is better not to exhaust ourselves with this amount of tournaments, because it is not simple or just fun or entertainment, especially when buy-in is high.
When we try or win a tournament, we have put in a lot of psychological effort and focus as well.
In general, choosing the right game, timing, and place are important rules for achieving good results.

Toruk Makto · Jun 3, 2026

80% skill and 20% luck

bremp555 · Jun 3, 2026

In my opinion, it's both. Luck determines who wins a particular freeroll, but skill determines who keeps showing up in the money over hundreds of them.

The fields can be chaotic, especially early on, so variance is huge. But players with solid fundamentals, patience, and good short stack strategy tend to outperform the field in the long run. If it were pure luck, we'd never see the same names cashing repeatedly.

Freerolls may feel like a lottery some days, but over time skill still finds a way to rise to the top.

RENEY444 · Jun 3, 2026

It's clearly skill if they keep cashing .As others have said , patience , discipline and knowledge of your opponents all matter .

FrizzaoR · Jun 3, 2026

You gotta have both

888NOX888 · Jun 4, 2026

Of course, you can't do without luck in crazy freerolls, probably the ability to play poker there is of secondary importance, especially in the early stages.

Lodestone · Jun 4, 2026

Toruk Makto said:
80% skill and 20% luck

I'd say its 88% skill and 12% luck.

Which is also the odds of AA vs 72 lol

The only thing guaranteed in poker is fish interpreting variance or downswings as rigging.

Poker Orifice · Jun 4, 2026

When I win it's 100% skill... when you win it's mostly luck.

Mr.$t0k · Jun 4, 2026

I think it's a mix of luck and skill and the higher the skill, the less luck is needed to win and vice versa.

Snake2007 · Jun 4, 2026

I think is 70% skill and 30% luck

kaynbergo · Jun 4, 2026

When it comes to freerolls, I would say that luck plays an important role here, no matter how well you play GTO. If a crazy player with 92 decides to raise and then go all-in when you reraise and you have AA, nothing can stop him and he'll often get 229. And such cases are very common in freerolls.

FoxMS · Jun 4, 2026

I think it's a combination of skill and luck

Geo90 · Jun 7, 2026

I think a freerolls require a good dose of luck in addition to skill; there are a lot of crazy players who bet anything and can easily beat your strong cards. MTTs are difficult anyway - there is a lot of variance.

Matt_Burns88 · Jun 8, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

In the long run, skill will always prevail. That is why you have consistent winners and losers at all stakes, not just freerolls. The real skill is finding the level where you have a good enough edge that you can be a consistent winner. Then just keep grinding those games and live your best life.

Skill or pure luck?

Tony995890

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NSX_Amfe2nat

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Chebchoub

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Flyer35

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