Skill or pure luck?

Matt_Burns88 · Jun 8, 2026

aajfilho said:
It requires patience too.

Which is a skill.

flamenkit154 · Jun 9, 2026

Honestly Tony, it’s a total mix of both, but the guys consistently cashing these definitely have a system down.freerolls are an absolute minefield early on because nobody respects the chips. People will literally shove pre-flop with random garbage just because it’s free to play, so you absolutely need some pure luck to dodge the initial chaos and stay alive.But cashing consistently? That’s pure skill and patience. The pros just sit back, let the maniacs eliminate themselves, and strictly play tight-aggressive poker. You can't bluff these fields anyway, so you just wait for a monster, get max value, and avoid getting cute.Once you get near the bubble, the dynamic completely flips. Everyone panics because they want that free cash, and that’s exactly where the good players start ruthlessly stealing blinds and exploiting everyone's fear. It looks like a lottery from the outside, but surviving freerolls is basically just an art form of dodging bullets and punishing bad players.

leomarinho · Jun 15, 2026

Pabloro10321 said:
I stopped playing WPT, but it's very easy to win. Observe your opponents, take notes on them, and you'll see that certain people always make the same mistake. Out of every 10 times, you'll win 2, but the rest of the time you'll double or triple your score due to poorly executed bluffs.

Good point Taking notes and identifying recurring mistakes can be a huge edge. Many players are surprisingly consistent with their leaks, and once you recognize those patterns, it becomes much easier to make profitable adjustments

leomarinho · Jun 15, 2026

Lodestone said:
I'd say its 88% skill and 12% luck.

Which is also the odds of AA vs 72 lol

The only thing guaranteed in poker is fish interpreting variance or downswings as rigging.

Well said. Luck decides individual hands, but skill decides long-term results. Most accusations of rigging come from people underestimating how brutal variance can be

leomarinho · Jun 15, 2026

flamenkit154 said:
Honestly Tony, it’s a total mix of both, but the guys consistently cashing these definitely have a system down.Freerolls are an absolute minefield early on because nobody respects the chips. People will literally shove pre-flop with random garbage just because it’s free to play, so you absolutely need some pure luck to dodge the initial chaos and stay alive.But cashing consistently? That’s pure skill and patience. The pros just sit back, let the maniacs eliminate themselves, and strictly play tight-aggressive poker. You can't bluff these fields anyway, so you just wait for a monster, get max value, and avoid getting cute.Once you get near the bubble, the dynamic completely flips. Everyone panics because they want that free cash, and that’s exactly where the good players start ruthlessly stealing blinds and exploiting everyone's fear. It looks like a lottery from the outside, but surviving freerolls is basically just an art form of dodging bullets and punishing bad players.

I agree. The early stages of freerolls often feel chaotic because players take huge risks with weak hands. But consistently cashing isn’t just luck—it’s about patience, discipline, and adjusting to the field. The best players survive the chaos early and then take advantage of the mistakes others make later on

leomarinho · Jun 15, 2026

kaynbergo said:
When it comes to freerolls, I would say that luck plays an important role here, no matter how well you play GTO. If a crazy player with 92 decides to raise and then go all-in when you reraise and you have AA, nothing can stop him and he'll often get 229. And such cases are very common in freerolls.

That’s true. In freerolls, you’ll often see players making moves with very weak hands, which increases the role of luck in individual hands. The key is to keep getting your chips in with the better hand—sometimes they’ll get there, but over time those situations are still profitable

JuniorCordeiro10 · Jun 24, 2026

I believe it's around 80% skill and 20% luck.

bowserdon · Jun 24, 2026

Good players are lucky

navicula · Jun 24, 2026

Winning once can often be attributed to luck, but consistently winning over time usually reflects skill.

In my view, poker is a combination of both skill and luck. Luck may influence short-term results, but skill is what helps players make better decisions and stay profitable in the long run.

aorodrigo · Jun 24, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

It's obviously skill
I am (or I used to be) a freeroll grinder and of course there's a lot of "unfiltred luck" on early stages, but as games goes on, skill prevails

Nameless14 · Jun 24, 2026

I think it's a mix of both. You definitely need some luck to survive those massive freeroll fields, but players who consistently cash aren't just getting lucky over and over.

They usually have solid fundamentals, stay patient early on, avoid unnecessary risks, and know when to ramp up the aggression. Luck helps in the short term, but consistently making the money takes good decision-making.

johnwat2 · Jun 24, 2026

NSX_Amfe2nat said:
How many tournaments do u play in month? I play more than 400 in my baddest mothes and ofcaurse luck is important. But with big amount of tournaments u will see how game changes. Sometimes luck will be with u, sometimes with ur opponents but on big distance u will see how skill much more important than luck

I play20 or so a month. Skill is always important but it's nice to get lucky now and then.

KeyPatience · Jun 24, 2026

aajfilho said:
It requires patience too.

Present Sir! ☝🏼🤭

CDNMAN 42 · Jun 25, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

I really think it is a combination of both luck and playing style. At the outset in most of those free rolls, if one pays attention ,they can easily identify the "crazies" and use this knowledge to their advantage..the biggest unknown factor in these games is the continuous bad beats, where regularly Premium hands are destroyed by absolute junk..one gets AA, KK etc. gets jammed and loses to 68. 2 pair. the only possible option is to fold premium hands and that just doesn't happen..

ammje · Jun 25, 2026

In free tournaments there are a lot of crazy players, because they're free they play a lot of bad hands and sometimes they connect something, I've seen a lot of crazy players at the final tables and good players left out, maybe their strategy isn't that bad.

moraeskvmi · Jun 26, 2026

WPT is about having patience and taking notes on the players.

johnwat2 · Jun 26, 2026

Of course skill comes first. but luck now and then sure feels good.

odonob · Jun 26, 2026

Freeroll MTT is mostly luck. Basically you need the cards. Skill will come more important at the latter stages. You do need the run however, considering that if you lose 3 consecutive all ins you will most likely be out. You need to be able to be patient and grind out wins in this format also.

finaltable1 · Jun 26, 2026

Freeroll? Skill? How did these two words come together in one sentence?

Semprini · Jun 27, 2026

Short term no one can beat blind luck. It's just too powerful. Long term, skill all the way.

23maxim88 · Jun 27, 2026

Of course, skill is important, plus a bit of luck, volume, and of course patience. You need to play consistently at the same level and avoid making stupid mistakes.

bronwen777 · Jun 27, 2026

lol, i was 1st place in a tourney earlier today and i thought to myself. this isnt luck. it's skill.

SergioV · Jul 8, 2026

Tony995890 said:
I’m really curious about players who consistently manage to make the money in freerolls like the WPT. Is it actually based on skillful analysis and strategy, or is it just pure, unfiltered luck given how crazy those fields are?

I don't think it's just luck. Luck is important in freerolls because the fields are so wild, but over time skill makes the difference. Players who cash often are usually more patient, avoid unnecessary all-ins, and pick better spots. In my opinion, if someone is making the money consistently, it's more than just good luck.

antonis32123 · Jul 8, 2026

You need both . without skill you will not be able to be winner on the long run . Luck will not be enough by itself ,but neither skill . Both are needed . Luck you cannot control . But you can become more skillfull

Atararo14 · Jul 17, 2026

You'll go through a phase like that too; every player can go through a period of change. It's normal!

Skill or pure luck?

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