Folding AA on my very first hand in a tournament

Against very bad players, I would like to take bets where the expected value is very large. I sometimes fold what I think is the best hand if I think I can get better odds with another hand.

In this case, however, it is correct to call. You are a huge favorite to win and if you do, you quadruple your stack. Lets run through a few scenarios: Suppose your opponents have AK, JJ, and 89s respectively. Those would be typical hands for guys going all in preflop (in fact, I sometimes see way worse hands too). In this case you are a 57% favorite to win which is huge against 3 players.
You can give your opponents various different other hole cards, but you will have a hard time finding a combination of cards that they could possibly hold that would give you less than a 50% chance of winning. You can play around with this at CardPlayer.com - Poker Odds Calculator. The worst possible hands I could find that you could be up against would be smaller suited connectors which in some cases give you a 44% of winning.

Even with a 44% chance of winning (worst case I could find), the expected value is

Ev = 3*.44 - .56 = 0.76

Thus, on average by taking this bet you increase your chip-stack by 76 percent. Most likely of course, your opponents have hands like AQ, AK, and underpairs which make you a much bigger favorite to win (typically about 55-60 percent).

Consider also the fact that you are playing a tournament where you really need to win large hands to even finish in the money. Even good players lose more tournaments than they win. You cannot mouse your way to victory in a mtt.


In conclusion, as many others have pointed out, folding here is simply not a good play.

"Is this completely insane ?"

YES! the only hand you can never fold preflop in HE is AA under any circumstances unless ur bubbling a sat or something.

robwhufc said:

in part...No-one has ever been a winning player by taking zero risk. NevadaNick cannot be a winning player, and nor will you be if you follow his advice.

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Every hand a player places a bet on means they are taking 'a risk'. Not joining a multi-way AI PF does not mean you don't take risks - just not THAT particular risk, at that particular time.

I guess having BR's on 3 sites while never making an online deposit and having a +ROI on my own live MTT play makes me a losing player. I can live with that ....
.

bad play

Its not a "matter of style" its just bad play. In poker you try to get as much money in the pot when you THINK your ahead. If your gonna fold when you know your ahead your not playing to win. That being said there are off course extreme satty and ICM situations where folding the more than likely best hand becomes a good play(very rarely AA), but this is not the case here. If you fold because you dont wanna bust the first hand out of a tourny and play on, thats fair. But dont try to make an argument for something thats obviously a bad play.

you should've called, i agree when people say if you can't afford to lose $3, then you're playing too high stakes. the real question is how did you finish in the tournament? if you weren't itm, then ya definitely blew it.

you are totally insane, i've had AA & went all in & everyone folds
you hadem right where you wanted them & you blew it

INSANE that's not even the word for it lol
i would of welcomed 2 or 3 all ins, too bad i wasn't in your position, i would of went all in, in a heartbeat, those chances don't come along everyday, but it was your $$ so you chose to play it how you wanted

I think his point is, that with the 3 all ins the liklihood of his aces being cracked is larger. In fact, if you put AA into your calculator against 3 hands.. say 5/6s, 9/10s amd 2/2... You're aces only have about a %45 chance of winning the hand. You, may quad up... but, over half the time you'll be out of the tourney. With, beginning stacks.. is the chip value really worth a coin flip for your tournament life? I don't think it's a bad fold..

Aloha

sounds a bit crazy to me, but that is me. i would have had to take my chances with the AA and hope not to get out drawn. but if you felt that was the right thing to do, it was right for you. How far did you end up making it though is what i would like to know. gl and play on.

martygokona said:

I think his point is, that with the 3 all ins the liklihood of his aces being cracked is larger. In fact, if you put AA into your calculator against 3 hands.. say 5/6s, 9/10s amd 2/2... You're aces only have about a %45 chance of winning the hand. You, may quad up... but, over half the time you'll be out of the tourney. With, beginning stacks.. is the chip value really worth a coin flip for your tournament life? I don't think it's a bad fold..

Aloha

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He would still have a better chance than everyone else.

I wouldn't have folded AA pre flop for any reason, personally.

MySpaceTV Videos: Jeanne and the Pianoman Video Channel


All the evidence you need...

well i understand where he's coming from only if it was a deep stack tourney with a large buy in, and he just didnt want to go broke on the first hand, i mean lets face it the best odds pre-flop are always gonna be 4-1 and with 3 people all in allready it may have been an acceptable play, playing tournament poker with large buy-ins its definitely not an innefective strategy to avoid all ins get in cheap flop the goods and try to milk those suckers for all they're worth lol. but since you were playing a $3 game, it was a poor play, next time all in buddy~!

martygokona said:

You, may quad up... but, over half the time you'll be out of the tourney. With, beginning stacks.. is the chip value really worth a coin flip for your tournament life?

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The simple question is then, do you get to more than 4 times your starting stack in over half of your tournaments? If you do, you can argue for a fold. Do you?

Folding pocket aces preflop is absolutely moronic. I would have never do so, if you are scared to lose with the best possible hand possible, you have no reason to even be playing at all. I just dont understand how this is justified as a sane play. Check into rehab and clean yourself up.

I think you made the right move although I doubt I would have done it. The worst thing that can happen is getting eliminated on the first hand. You will have plenty more opportunities to win chips.

Belladonna?

belladonna05 said:

here is a not so great example of that, I was 3rd in chips but had the second best hand...so by somes reasoning i shouldve taken 2nd but didnt because there is only one winner
Table '96171771 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: suessehexe (18580 in chips)
Seat 6: belladonna05 (3742 in chips)
Seat 8: Lo stucchino (4678 in chips)
suessehexe: posts the ante 50
belladonna05: posts the ante 50
Lo stucchino: posts the ante 50
belladonna05: posts small blind 400
Lo stucchino: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to belladonna05 [Kd 3d]
suessehexe: raises 2400 to 3200
belladonna05: raises 492 to 3692 and is all-in
Lo stucchino: raises 936 to 4628 and is all-in
suessehexe: calls 1428
*** FLOP *** [3c 7h 7c]
*** TURN *** [3c 7h 7c] 6♥
*** RIVER *** [3c 7h 7c 6h] 4♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Lo stucchino: shows [Js Ks] (a pair of Sevens)
suessehexe: shows [Qc 7s] (three of a kind, Sevens)
suessehexe collected 1872 from side pot
belladonna05: shows [Kd 3d] (two pair, Sevens and Threes)
suessehexe collected 11226 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13098 Main pot 11226. Side pot 1872. | Rake 0
Board [3c 7h 7c 6h 4h]
Seat 2: suessehexe (button) showed [Qc 7s] and won (13098) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 6: belladonna05 (small blind) showed [Kd 3d] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Threes
Seat 8: Lo stucchino (big blind) showed [Js Ks] and lost with a pair of Sevens

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Belladonna? I love your movies and wish one day to meet you.

Ask the first guy out of this years main event. Pocket aces are the best starting hand, but anything can happen after the flop. If you would have played them you would have a great chip stack, but it is easy to know what you should have done after the hand is over. Many people cannot fold pkt aces ever and it can be your downfall. Going all in pre-flop with 3 other people drastically reduces the value of your top pair. At least with a decent raise you would be able to get away from the hand if need be after the flop, and live to see another hand.Without doing a search, how many times have you seen a post that starts with "OMG my aces got beat."

belladonna05 said:

here is a not so great example of that, I was 3rd in chips but had the second best hand...so by somes reasoning i shouldve taken 2nd but didnt because there is only one winner
Table '96171771 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: suessehexe (18580 in chips)
Seat 6: belladonna05 (3742 in chips)
Seat 8: Lo stucchino (4678 in chips)
suessehexe: posts the ante 50
belladonna05: posts the ante 50
Lo stucchino: posts the ante 50
belladonna05: posts small blind 400
Lo stucchino: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to belladonna05 [Kd 3d]
suessehexe: raises 2400 to 3200
belladonna05: raises 492 to 3692 and is all-in
Lo stucchino: raises 936 to 4628 and is all-in
suessehexe: calls 1428
*** FLOP *** [3c 7h 7c]
*** TURN *** [3c 7h 7c] 6♥
*** RIVER *** [3c 7h 7c 6h] 4♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Lo stucchino: shows [Js Ks] (a pair of Sevens)
suessehexe: shows [Qc 7s] (three of a kind, Sevens)
suessehexe collected 1872 from side pot
belladonna05: shows [Kd 3d] (two pair, Sevens and Threes)
suessehexe collected 11226 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13098 Main pot 11226. Side pot 1872. | Rake 0
Board [3c 7h 7c 6h 4h]
Seat 2: suessehexe (button) showed [Qc 7s] and won (13098) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 6: belladonna05 (small blind) showed [Kd 3d] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Threes
Seat 8: Lo stucchino (big blind) showed [Js Ks] and lost with a pair of Sevens

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Sorry but those that say you should have got second are wrong. You shouldnt have got second at all.

You went all in and both players called your bet. You lost that bet. The fact you beat the second placed player isnt relevant. You both lost that single bet.

The second chip leader had other chips left with which a side pot would be created. You were already out of the game and therefore the final bet was between the person who finished second and the winner.

hennyville2000 said:

Belladonna? I love your movies and wish one day to meet you.

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fcumred said:

Sorry but those that say you should have got second are wrong. You shouldnt have got second at all.

You went all in and both players called your bet. You lost that bet. The fact you beat the second placed player isnt relevant. You both lost that single bet.

The second chip leader had other chips left with which a side pot would be created. You were already out of the game and therefore the final bet was between the person who finished second and the winner.

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sighhhhhhhhhhhh

Yea playing AA preflop should be an easy call, but i do understand your situation. Because on these online poker sites often the underdogs end up winning even if you made the right call. But i guess thats the nature of the game.

This is an obvious call. Maybe a scary one but defiantely a call.

dont think i could bring myself to fold A A on the first middle or last hand, but its your call and if you were happy then so be it.

robwhufc said:

The simple question is then, do you get to more than 4 times your starting stack in over half of your tournaments? If you do, you can argue for a fold. Do you?

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actually even if you do you can't necessarily argue for a fold because of how continually doubling up after starting with a larger stack, rather than a smaller stack, increases how much you win exponentially rather than on a flat scale

but you make a good point in that if you don't (and nobody does), then it all but proves folding is very very wrong

OMG>>>no u didnt...lol

wow man that was a crazy story,however I wish I had a nickel for how many times I have been busted with AA~!So go with your gut and never
start to doubt when you have or have not made the wrong decisions in a trny cuz this will surely cause bad game play .

i must say that i agree with this in some situations, because, sometimes we have hands that we can never win with no matter what we do (isn't that odd) then we have hands that we can win almost everytime, for instance i win 99% with QQ ( that's the only hand i've found to be my winner so far) yet there are some hands that no matter what i do i can't win, still if i had the aces i would of called, i've seen players say that they lose with AA all the time so maybe that's their bad cards to play

Lafaena said:

Its not a "matter of style" its just bad play. In poker you try to get as much money in the pot when you THINK your ahead. If your gonna fold when you know your ahead your not playing to win. That being said there are off course extreme satty and ICM situations where folding the more than likely best hand becomes a good play(very rarely AA), but this is not the case here. If you fold because you dont wanna bust the first hand out of a tourny and play on, thats fair. But dont try to make an argument for something thats obviously a bad play.

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