It depends over what time period you are talking about. In the short term, luck plays a huge role. In the longer term skill plays more and more of a part.
Think of it this way; if a top pro and a complete rookie played one hand together, the likelihood is that the rookie calls all the way to the river and there's a 50/50 chance they will win the hand and the money.
Over 10 hands, the pro has a slight advantage, of course the rookie could flop quads into the pros boat and the rookie wins the night.
Over 100 hands the pro is almost a certainty to win, even if the rookie hits 3 or 4 monster hands, the pro is likely to finish on top
Over 1000 hands I'd put my house on the pro winning, because in the end skill is a much bigger factor than luck in the long term
Think of it this way; if a top pro and a complete rookie played one hand together, the likelihood is that the rookie calls all the way to the river and there's a 50/50 chance they will win the hand and the money.
Over 10 hands, the pro has a slight advantage, of course the rookie could flop quads into the pros boat and the rookie wins the night.
Over 100 hands the pro is almost a certainty to win, even if the rookie hits 3 or 4 monster hands, the pro is likely to finish on top
Over 1000 hands I'd put my house on the pro winning, because in the end skill is a much bigger factor than luck in the long term
Going to offend some people on here. Why play poker if you cant control the out come. Poker is gambling and the skill can be picking up if someone doesn't have a hand or making others believe you have a hand through tells of some kind. THOSE ARE SKILLS.
Some like to say mathematics is skill but its really just prioritized gambling. Meaning the chances are higher that you may or may not based on the number of outs. Its more of an edge than a skill and recognizing those edges might even be considered a skill. But as long as there's a chance of lose then its a game of luck.
The big thing always brought up is why do you always see the same people at the final table. You dont. But to be able to afford to keep returning you usually need that big win to pay for future tourneys. If your good enough you get backers who pay putting you in most tourneys giving you more chances than the average joe. Moneymaker won once. Greg once. The norm is usually once. A hand full multiple times.
None will tell you it wasn't luck that got them there. Even the brat writes it in his book.
Some like to say mathematics is skill but its really just prioritized gambling. Meaning the chances are higher that you may or may not based on the number of outs. Its more of an edge than a skill and recognizing those edges might even be considered a skill. But as long as there's a chance of lose then its a game of luck.
The big thing always brought up is why do you always see the same people at the final table. You dont. But to be able to afford to keep returning you usually need that big win to pay for future tourneys. If your good enough you get backers who pay putting you in most tourneys giving you more chances than the average joe. Moneymaker won once. Greg once. The norm is usually once. A hand full multiple times.
None will tell you it wasn't luck that got them there. Even the brat writes it in his book.
I think that if you introduce science to make all of your poker decisions it will be no luck at all. Science is the best tool humans have to make decisions in anything, all businesses will eventually base all their decisions in science. Data is cheap to get, but with great tools and analytics it will be really valuable
I think online luck is very important, while live the skill of reading your opponents and dominating them psychologically can give you a real advantage over weaker players...
You SHOULD be winning in the long run... but there isnt really a guarantee you will.
You SHOULD be winning in the long run... but there isnt really a guarantee you will.
3,2 is the new aces
I just played in tourney and being chatty i told the guy if i get 3,2 off im all in. He said i wont. took about twenty hands later i told everyone if you dont want to lose fold. i got 3,2. Guy said ill call you i have aces.
I push all in and sure enough he had aces. I flop a deuce and rivered a 3. crippling him. Before he left he asked how i new i would win. I told him i, 19/21 for winning. all had high pocket pairs except the two i lost. One got a flush and other higher straight. All flopped my cards.
It was a CC member who crippled me in a tourney. I watched him do it a second time and from then i said what the hell.now im 20/22😀😀😀😀😀
I just played in tourney and being chatty i told the guy if i get 3,2 off im all in. He said i wont. took about twenty hands later i told everyone if you dont want to lose fold. i got 3,2. Guy said ill call you i have aces.
I push all in and sure enough he had aces. I flop a deuce and rivered a 3. crippling him. Before he left he asked how i new i would win. I told him i, 19/21 for winning. all had high pocket pairs except the two i lost. One got a flush and other higher straight. All flopped my cards.
It was a CC member who crippled me in a tourney. I watched him do it a second time and from then i said what the hell.now im 20/22😀😀😀😀😀
Luck in Poker
There is more luck involved then skill. I think even 10% skill is high. If dealing of the cards is truly random the skill part is a lot more less. But if the dealing is random to promote betting the skill lever increase significantly.
I have been on a major loosing streak of late and it really gets discouraging so I will be taking a break for awhile.
Good Luck at the tables.
There is more luck involved then skill. I think even 10% skill is high. If dealing of the cards is truly random the skill part is a lot more less. But if the dealing is random to promote betting the skill lever increase significantly.
I have been on a major loosing streak of late and it really gets discouraging so I will be taking a break for awhile.
Good Luck at the tables.
Heresthecooler said:
I believe luck to be a 33% factor is holdem, meaning that a 1/3 of the time luck will crush your soul and "skill". You can be so good at this game but the 33% of the time luck will beat you. Skill is all about reading your opponents, their ranges, understanding the math and inner workings of a game. Luck cannot beat that in the long run, but there still is that one third of the time luck will prevail. Good luck in your future games and I hope the math is in your favor.
When I first started playing poker, I was sure that poker, like any other card game, depends on luck. Many years later, when I gained experience and talked with professionals, I realized that poker is a game of mathematics and psychology if it is live poker, and statistics if it is online poker. Luck also plays a role, but in this game a lot depends on the experience and the correct actions of the player.
There is a fair bit of luck, like 33% luck in holdem as far as I can guess. There are luck and attitude that also factor in at 33% each as well. Sometimes I like to play in a low stakes game where I can afford to lose and get quite drunk and rely almost entirely on LUCK!!!
Luck in poker is there but it is a 2 way street. Never found trying to put a percentage on something there is no data for. It would just be a guess, or a lucky guess.
I can however control my actions and the amount of time studying the game. Rather look at luck cancelling itself out, as you are unlucky and then lucky on some hands. Prefer to take stock in things you can control.
I can however control my actions and the amount of time studying the game. Rather look at luck cancelling itself out, as you are unlucky and then lucky on some hands. Prefer to take stock in things you can control.