dsvw56 said:
Nice dude, I'm pretty much where you're at, if I don't run good the next time I take a stab at 10nl I might have to get violent.
Just curious, you plan on sticking with 6-max for the next couple of limits you play? I'm contemplating switching to FR once I move up to 10nl but I'm not sure if that would bore me to death. Also, how many buy-ins you got for 10nl?
March sucks.
For PT users - there's an App that you can find in the PT forum called Holdem Luck (free) that measures your actual performance against your EV when you're all in. I attached a graph for my Feb through March (couldn't figure out how to just put the image here).
Two interesting things from this graph, I think -
1. In general, I'm making positive Ev moves when I'm going all in (green line "expected value" going up), though there are a series of negative Ev moves I made on March 11-12 (I was on a serious tilt).
2. In general, I did something to really piss off the poker gods from about Feb 21 through March 8 (blue line "actual value" is below green line "expected value", red line "difference" going down).
For PT users - there's an App that you can find in the PT forum called Holdem Luck (free) that measures your actual performance against your EV when you're all in. I attached a graph for my Feb through March (couldn't figure out how to just put the image here).
Two interesting things from this graph, I think -
1. In general, I'm making positive Ev moves when I'm going all in (green line "expected value" going up), though there are a series of negative Ev moves I made on March 11-12 (I was on a serious tilt).
2. In general, I did something to really piss off the poker gods from about Feb 21 through March 8 (blue line "actual value" is below green line "expected value", red line "difference" going down).
Attachments
I knew i shouldnt download this.slycbnew said:
If i where above ev+ i be pissed cause i suck and if im below im upset cause i run bad.
Turns out, i run bad 118,89$ below ev.
But this a kinda pointless program seeing how all-in ev is only a tiny part of the luck involved in poker.
Oh and you run bad in all-in pots. What limit are u playing?
BelgoSuisse said:
A better indicator, but I've always been a little leery of it too.
When I was short stacking, the all-in EV was almost always going up, because I was choosing situations to be all-in where I was pretty sure I was ahead. Easier to do when you're playing nitty short.
But even full stacked, if a player plays weak rather than aggressive I suspect their all-in EV line is going to be upward all the time as well because they're afraid to get all-in unless they're pretty sure they're ahead.
To expand on what Belgo said, think of if you get money in as an 80% favorite. Even though you got it in good, it's still a suckout when you win as you were supposed to only win 80% of the pot but you won 100% of it. Think about it this way and hopefully you'll see why ev line should always converge to money won line regardless of how often you get it in good.
sindri_93 said:
25NL.
This tool is limited to only evaluating the Ev/actuals where Hero is all-in - it's only 483 hands out of the 44.3K hands I played in the last two months. So yeah, I'm running bad in all-in pots - I think the author of the program was mostly trying to measure luck, though - generally, if my Ev line is going up, I should feel good about my play regardless of the actuals - i.e., I'm usually getting my money in good.
For the hands on March 11th and 12th that show a decline in Ev (hands 418 to 438), here's what happened -
all in with QJs on board of QJ65 rainbow, against 55 - lost
all in pf with QQ against KK - lost
all in pf with JJ against AA - lost
all in pf with KK against 77 - lost (suckout)
all in pf with KK against AA - lost
all in pf with KK against AA - lost
all in with KQo on board of 9TJr, against QJo - won
all in with 66 on board of 6T2r, against AA - won
all in with 77 on board of 23T4r, against KK - lost
all in with A7o on board of 8A7Kr, against 88 - lost
all in with AKo pf against AKo, split pot
all in with 77 on board of 3543r, against TT - lost
all in with AKs on board of QJ37, against 66 - won (suckout)
all in with A8s on board of TsJs7d4d, against 98o - won (suckout)
all in with AA on board of 265Tr, against TT - lost
all in with QQ on board of J738r, against AA - lost
all in with TT on board of 846Qr, against QQ - lost
all in with A9o on board of 4354, against K5s - won (suckout)
all in pf with 22 against Q9o - won
You can see some "tilty" all-ins in the second half of these hands. However, even though I got my money in bad, I didn't necessarily make mistakes in my actions in the first half of these hands - i.e., KK against AA pf.
Guys who understand Ev better than I do - I was just thinking this shows that I've been running bad/unlucky, not necessarily that I've been making bad or good decisions - as long as the green Ev line goes up, I'm generally making reasonable decisions - is this a correct understanding?
Oh, and for the luck factor - you'll see the red line is relatively flat during this range of hands - i.e., I roughly matched the Ev of my plays in my actuals.
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I've been meaning to write about this for a while, but I keep forgetting. But anyways, this is how I table select.
1. Sort the tables. Stars is super awesome since you can just right click in the column header and sort by different stats. I have mine sorted by Stakes then Players then Players per Flop, all in descending order.
2. Get on a shitload of waiting lists. I get on the waiting list for pretty much every table that has a decent PPF%. Usually like 20-30 or so.
3. Open the tables. As soon as a seat becomes available, I open it to have a look. If there's more than 1 shortstack, I close it immediately. Also, if there's a person with less than 30BB in the two seats to the left of the open seat, I close it.
4. Wait for stats to load. (If you have HEM and don't know how to enable this for Stars let me know, I can help you out.) If the table is to my liking, then I'll take the seat. Some things I look for are tighter players to my left and looser players (preferably ones that limp a lot) to my right. I also look for spots where I have position on an overly aggressive bad player (like 60/30's and such) since they are ridiculously easy to exploit and basically throw money at you.
There's WAY too many good spots in the micros to waste time at tables that aren't ideal. So take the extra 10 minutes or so and find good tables.
1. Sort the tables. Stars is super awesome since you can just right click in the column header and sort by different stats. I have mine sorted by Stakes then Players then Players per Flop, all in descending order.
2. Get on a shitload of waiting lists. I get on the waiting list for pretty much every table that has a decent PPF%. Usually like 20-30 or so.
3. Open the tables. As soon as a seat becomes available, I open it to have a look. If there's more than 1 shortstack, I close it immediately. Also, if there's a person with less than 30BB in the two seats to the left of the open seat, I close it.
4. Wait for stats to load. (If you have HEM and don't know how to enable this for Stars let me know, I can help you out.) If the table is to my liking, then I'll take the seat. Some things I look for are tighter players to my left and looser players (preferably ones that limp a lot) to my right. I also look for spots where I have position on an overly aggressive bad player (like 60/30's and such) since they are ridiculously easy to exploit and basically throw money at you.
There's WAY too many good spots in the micros to waste time at tables that aren't ideal. So take the extra 10 minutes or so and find good tables.
dsvw56 said:
How many tables do you play at a time?? I can play 6-8 FR but i gave 6max cash a shot last night, just opened up 3 straight away and done fine, nearly 4BI's @ 5nl over 400 hands. Can't see how anybody can play more than that though b/c it's so damn fast.
Gotta say, I think i'm converted though, i loved it, i felt like my edge was a lot bigger there than at full ring and it was just generally more fun lol, can't remember his exact stats now but getting someone on your right who's stl% = 80 and fold to 3b = 70 is always going to be fun lol