Best Prediction Market Sites in the US January 2026
Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on real-world markets, such as pop culture. While they may seem similar to sports betting or other forms of gambling, they function more like financial exchanges because you buy contracts, and prices move based on public perception. Find out all the must-know details about prediction markets: how to get started, whether they’re safe, and which sites are the best.
Our Top Five Recommended Prediction Sites
Here’s a quick look at the top six prediction market sites, including the pros and cons of each one.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where people trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of placing a fixed-odds bet with odds set by the house, you’re buying and selling contracts whose prices reflect what the market (including other predictors) thinks will happen. As news breaks and opinions shift, prices update to incorporate that information.
Most prediction markets simplify outcomes to “Yes” or “No,” making them approachable for beginners. The price you pay represents the market’s current implied probability of that outcome.
Other markets may have multiple possible outcomes (for example, who will be TIME magazine’s person of the year). In these cases, you can pick from a list of contenders, each with its own probability of winning.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Here are the quickfire need-to-know details about how prediction markets work. As they are new to the US market, it’s vital to understand the differences between online casino play and prediction markets.
- Everything is a contract: You “trade” outcomes on markets like “Will X happen by X date” or similar.
- Most markets are “Yes” or “No.”: You buy a contract for either side, and the price is set at the time of your trade.
- Prices move: After you buy a contract, prices can change based on developments (news stories, polling shifts, etc.) and/or ongoing trading activity.
- You can sell contracts: Before an event ends, you can sell your contracts for a higher price than you bought them (provided the pricing has moved that way).
- Settlement happens once the event is confirmed: If the “yes” outcome was correct, any associated contracts will pay out while “no” gets nothing, and vice versa.
Real-Life Example from Kalshi
Here’s an example of a simple prediction market from Kalshi. Note that this reflects the market’s status at the time of writing, and should be used for example purposes only.
Market: Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- Yes: $0.78
- No: $0.24
Those prices are per contract, and you can buy multiple. If your outcome is correct, you get $1 per contract. You can also sell your contracts at a later date. This might be a good idea if the outcome has become more likely, but you still have some uncertainty and want to guarantee a payout.
Cole Rush
Sweepstakes Casino Expert
If you’re new to prediction markets, I suggest starting small and simple. Stick to Yes or No markets and only buy a few dollars' worth of contracts at a time. This will help you get the feel for how it all works.
How to Get Started With Prediction Markets
Signing up for a prediction market site usually takes just a few minutes. Note that the steps may change slightly between sites, but the overall process will feel similar at any prediction platform.
- Pick a site. Head to your preferred prediction site.
- Start sign-up. Click “Sign up” or similar to get started.
- Choose your method. Many sites let you sign up with an existing Google or Apple account. You can also sign up manually with an email address.
- Provide the required info: email, password, birthday, phone number, address, and any other requested details.
- Confirm your email/phone. Use the code or link sent to your device.
- Await verification. The platform will verify your details before completing your account.
- Start trading. Make a deposit and use that to trade. You’re all set!
Are Prediction Market Sites Legal and Safe?
Prediction markets occupy a unique regulatory space and are governed more like financial sites. That’s why you’ll see language like “trade” and “contracts” instead of more gambling-coded words.
So, while prediction markets aren’t regulated in the same way as US online casinos or sportsbooks, they are still subject to strict regulation at the federal and state levels. Most reputable prediction market sites will have authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That said, prediction markets are currently under a lot of legal scrutiny. Some states have banned them completely, and legality varies by jurisdiction.
Cole Rush
Sweepstakes Casino Expert
Prediction markets remain very new, and regulations are constantly changing. Ensure you stick to the safe sites we recommend and follow responsible gambling practices so you remain within your limits and don’t overcommit your bankroll.
Prediction Market Sites vs. Traditional Gambling Sites
Prediction markets and traditional real-money casinos can feel similar, but the mechanics and pricing of the former behave more like a financial exchange. Here are the key differences and similarities.
Latest Prediction Market Updates
After years of being unavailable in the US, Polymarket is slowly returning to the US. The platform received a green light following its acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange. The site now has a live waitlist and is rolling it out to select customers.
Louisiana’s regulator warned that sports event contracts are treated as sports wagering under state law, and it cautioned that involvement (even indirect) could affect licensure. The warning reflects a growing bloc of states trying to regulate these products like sports betting.
Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection ordered multiple prediction platforms to stop unlicensed online gambling operations in the state. The state framed sports event contracts as illegal gambling and emphasized consumer protection risks, including underage exposure and a lack of licensed safeguards.
A federal judge ruled Kalshi is subject to Nevada gaming regulations, lifting a prior injunction and rejecting the argument that federal commodities law blocks state oversight here. Kalshi appealed, but the decision adds momentum to state-level enforcement efforts.
Our expert reviewers spend multiple hours with prediction sites and consider a wide array of factors when reviewing them. Here are the top elements we evaluate (though we consider others as well).
- 20% Security & Fairness
- 15% Bonuses & Promotions
- 15% Games & Software
- 10% Localization
- 10% Mobile Friendliness
- 15% Customer Service
- 15% Banking Options & Payout Speed
FAQ
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are exchanges that allow you to trade on projected outcomes in various areas: weather, politics, pop culture, and more.
What is the best prediction market site?
This depends on your state, as certain markets have specific sites available. Polymarket and Kalshi are two of the best, but there are many others.
Are there any prediction market apps?
Yes. Most prediction market platforms are available via a dedicated app. You can find these in the iOS App Store or Google Play.
Are prediction markets safe and legal?
Prediction markets are legal in some places and prohibited in others. You should always check whether a specific platform is allowed in your state before signing up.
Can I claim a bonus on a prediction market site?
Yes, some prediction sites offer welcome bonuses to new players. You may also find occasional promotions for existing players, too.
What prediction markets should I play on?
Start with markets you are already interested in. If you follow politics, for example, try related markets. There are plenty of categories: finance, weather, cryptocurrency, pop culture, and more.
