Luck or skill?

s0ftdumps · Jun 14, 2026

Better players consistently make better decisions, manage their bankrolls properly, control their emotions, and extract more value from winning hands while losing less with weaker ones. Given enough hands, the stronger player will usually come out ahead. Research and poker analysis often point to the same conclusion: luck determines individual outcomes, while skill determines long-term results.

OLDMONEY · Jun 15, 2026

My view is that luck gets you the chips, but skill keeps them. Anyone can have a great session thanks to good cards and favorable situations. The real difference shows up over months and years, when strong players continue to profit despite the inevitable downswings. If poker were only luck, the same names wouldn't keep winning. If it were only skill, variance wouldn't be such a big part of the game. The truth is that both matter, just in different ways.

Gonzalez1234 · Jun 15, 2026

Good luck for beginners, the main skill

dreamer13 · Jun 15, 2026

What kind of skill are we talking about? Many write and talk about it without giving luck the attention it deserves. I don't understand how anyone can make money off of luck; it's the same as a casino, even though many deny that poker is a casino.

leomarinho · Jun 15, 2026

ferxo said:
I can say and comment that throughout this time that I have been playing poker, luck is a more than important factor regardless of probability, since sometimes having the best cards it is not always certain that you will win based on the analysis that has been deduced from it.

I agree that luck is an important factor in the short term, you can put all the chips in the middle with the best hand and still lose.

The difference is that, in the long run, what weighs the most is not the result of a specific hand, but the quality of the decisions made. Luck determines who wins today; skill tends to determine who profits over thousands of hands and tournaments

odonob · Jun 15, 2026

One needs the luck. It’s not really a skill based game. The skill is in not defeating oneself and getting to greedy too early,

Rob Hobson · Jun 15, 2026

70% skill

Mr.Ram · Friday at 1:00 PM

Poker is undoubtedly a game of skill. That is why skill offers a huge advantage over the long run; at the same time, however, if luck isn't on your side on a particular day, you won't win a major tournament. Therefore, it’s 75% skill and 25% luck.

Marshmalo1994 · Friday at 1:37 PM

ferxo said:
I can say and comment that throughout this time that I have been playing poker, luck is a more than important factor regardless of probability, since sometimes having the best cards it is not always certain that you will win based on the analysis that has been deduced from it.

Maybe Adrian Mateos is the most lucky guy nowadays 😅

SOLO22 · Saturday at 11:42 AM

I am of the opinion that luck is between 40 and 30% more than all the variance and the other 30 or 60% is skill

EmecuuDolar · Saturday at 12:09 PM

No, it's all luck, I've won hands with bad cards without showing them.

Nameless14 · Saturday at 12:12 PM

Luck definitely plays a huge role in poker, especially in the short term. But over the long run, good decisions and solid strategy usually win out. Even the best hand can lose sometimes—that's just what keeps the game interesting.🍀

Marshmalo1994 · Saturday at 12:15 PM

EmecuuDolar said:
No, it's all luck, I've won hands with bad cards without showing them.

In that case, you won because of your strategy

TerryBLE · Saturday at 1:10 PM

It's an element that's present in poker and often causes frustration. I'm sure everyone here has their own stories about it. But if I believed it was the biggest factor, honestly, I'd stop playing. I think the worst part is the sense of injustice that bad beats create in the moment they happen. Very few people can deal with that in a balanced way and it's understandable, because it's genuinely difficult. We're emotional beings, after all.

For now, though, I'm still on the road between the next tournament and the risk of my monitor flying out the window.

massautv · Saturday at 1:19 PM

skill, luck and a lot of patience for when luck isn't on your side. It's analyzing each round

successlaw · Saturday at 2:19 PM

For short term luck is vital but when you look for a long journey there is almost all about skill

ammje · Saturday at 3:08 PM

Well you may be lucky one day at a tournament, I've seen bad players win a tournament, but in the long run those players are going to lose money, in the long run good players will make money, players who study and make the best decisions are going to have better results.

lwccasz · Saturday at 6:56 PM

Luck dominates in the short term, but what sets players apart in the long term is their focus on managing variance and minimizing errors.

Mohamed48 · Saturday at 7:12 PM

Sometimes it is a matter of luck, and other times it is about skill; however, the game has rules you must follow to improve your skills.

Saruka0808 · Saturday at 8:28 PM

You only talk about good luck but you didn't mention the variance, the bad streak that affects me the most. In my case, I've been on a bad streak for more than two months, that I can't win with AA and they beat me all the time with 27.93, A2.53 and that affects me a lot. Sometimes it's better to give yourself a good time off, and find yourself.

Poker Orifice · Saturday at 11:08 PM

Kirbs69 said:
I wasn't saying you said that poker isn't gambling. I just said that because poker is gambling in the end of the day.

What I was going back at you was the 70% part. Where did you get 70% from 4 hands in 100hands...

Also playing aggressively. That's not skills either. Just because you take the initiative it doesn't mean it's skills. Unless you're actually bankrolled into your stakes. Then that's not a viable option to do. I bet you. If you weren't bankrolled into your games. You wouldn't be making them +ev moves. Because you know. You'd be rinsed. Instead you'd be playing poker like it was supposed to be. Which is to protect your stack. Obviously in a tournament setting you're incentivized to play aggressively. So there are things to account for. But what I said still stands.

'Playing poker like it was supposed to be' LoL well this certainly helps to explain some of your views.
I also think it's funny the way you associate 'playing aggressively' with 'gambling'. Maybe your perception of playing aggressively is more like playing overly aggressive and spewy.
I'm glad there are players with your view of the game.

Poker Orifice · Saturday at 11:09 PM

Saruka0808 said:
You only talk about good luck but you didn't mention the variance, the bad streak that affects me the most. In my case, I've been on a bad streak for more than two months, that I can't win with AA and they beat me all the time with 27.93, A2.53 and that affects me a lot. Sometimes it's better to give yourself a good time off, and find yourself.

You can seek to improve by not letting it 'affect you a lot'.

BillyR23 · Saturday at 11:58 PM

The question about Luck or Skill in poker will always be around, mostly because we constantly have new players coming in that want to see (very) good results fast and/or players that don't want to put the 'work' and blame everything on bad luck... Like other members said - I also believe that it's very important to study and constantly improve your skills, aim to play close to your A game for most of your session/s and hopefully that 'luck' factor will be there for you, especially in important games and/or spots so you can see good results both short and long term...

Shooter74 · Sunday at 12:37 PM

60% Skill
40% Lucky

It's very difficult the variance....

Rachidao · Sunday at 1:35 PM

Luck in poker is more important than most players think, skill still important.

Luck or skill?

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